GROUNDED DATA PROTOCOL:
Manual audit of Single-Family detached resale inventory only; new construction excluded. Asking prices reflect the 75 active listings on the market September 28, 2026. Days on market reflect the 40 listings currently under contract — the homes buyers actually chose. Sold figures reflect the 78 closings in the 90 days ending September 28, 2026, and close-to-list is measured per listing. Failed to sell is the share of listings resolving in that window — sold or withdrawn — that came off the market without a sale.
| Zip | Avg Price (Active) | Med Price (Active) | Med Sold (90d) | Close-to-List | Failed to Sell | Avg DOM (Pending) | Med DOM (Pending) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27601 | $593,314 | $520,000 | $655,000 | 97.8% | 55.3% | 104 Days | 106 Days |
| 27605 | $1,291,989 | $975,000 | $1,150,000 | 97.0% | 33.3% | 41 Days | 19 Days |
| 27607 | $1,208,097 | $825,000 | $760,000 | 97.2% | 18.2% | 46 Days | 27 Days |
| 27608 | $1,516,327 | $1,245,000 | $1,151,000 | 97.8% | 16.1% | 17 Days | 6 Days |
Grounded Perspective
Pricing: Village District (27605) fell $114,000 to $975,000, but on 9 active listings that is noise, not a trend. West Raleigh/NCSU (27607) eased $15,000 to $825,000. Downtown/Historic East (27601) and Five Points (27608) both finished exactly where they started, at $520,000 and $1,245,000.
Velocity: The worst two cycles in a row for this tier. It has gone from 14 days at the end of August to 25 on September 15 to 40 now, sliding from the fastest group in the audit to seventh of eight. Downtown/Historic East is the single slowest zip in this cycle at 106 days to contract, up from 76 — on a 5-listing pending pool, so read the direction rather than the number. Five Points held at 6 days and remains the fastest zip in the audit.
Seller Outcomes: This is where the tier looks worst. Sellers here collected 97.5% of asking, the lowest of any group, and 31.6% of listings that resolved in the last 90 days came off the market without selling — also the highest. Downtown/Historic East is the outlier that should worry anyone listing there: 21 listings gave up against 17 that sold, a 55.3% failure rate, by far the worst in the audit.
The Bottom Line
75 active against 40 pending — the smallest, thinnest tier in this series, and now the one with the weakest seller outcomes. In Downtown/Historic East, more listings gave up than sold. Pools this small swing hard, but three consecutive cycles pointing the same direction is a pattern, not noise.
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